前英国央行官员坚持黄金“泡沫论”：投资须承担血本无归的风险！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the long-standing debate on the intrinsic value of gold, highlighting its significant price increase over the years, and compares it to Bitcoin in terms of volatility and market perception [1][2]. Group 1: Gold's Value and Market Dynamics - Willem Buiter argues that gold has been in a bubble for 6000 years, with its intrinsic value being minimal, despite its price rising over 50% this year to over $4000 per ounce [1]. - Buiter compares gold to Bitcoin, noting that both assets exhibit high volatility, with Bitcoin experiencing a dramatic price increase and subsequent decline [1][2]. - The demand for gold is partly driven by jewelry consumption, with an estimated 9.7149 million tons used for this purpose, but Buiter believes much of this demand is essentially investment-driven [2]. Group 2: Supply and Cost Considerations - The article mentions that the total global gold supply is projected to be 4975 tons in 2024, raising concerns about the high costs associated with gold mining, storage, and insurance [3]. - Buiter emphasizes that the cost of gold mining is significant, with estimates of total costs around $1500 per ton, questioning the economic rationale behind gold production [3]. - The total estimated gold reserves with economic viability are 5.477 million tons, while resources with questionable profitability amount to 13.211 million tons [3]. Group 3: Central Bank Holdings and Investment Strategy - Central banks have significantly increased their gold holdings since 2022, with gold now comprising 20% of their foreign exchange reserves, surpassing the euro's share [4]. - Buiter warns against central banks investing heavily in gold, labeling it as a high-risk asset with negligible intrinsic value, suggesting that they should sell gold to private investors who can bear the risk [4]. - The article concludes that the historical perception of gold as a value storage tool may be misguided, and that the gold standard is unlikely to return [4].