多家机构警告美国经济衰退

Core Insights - Multiple financial institutions have issued warnings regarding the state of the U.S. economy, indicating that nearly half of the states are experiencing recession and contraction [1][2] - Concerns have been raised about the impact of government spending, inflation, and tariff policies on the economy, with predictions of a potential recession as early as 2026 [1][3] - Key indicators of economic distress include rising unemployment rates and declining labor participation among specific age groups [2][5] Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy showed a quarterly growth of 3.8% in Q2 2025, surpassing market expectations, yet the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, marking a four-year high [2] - Moody's analysis highlights that the most severe recession is occurring in Washington D.C., exacerbated by federal layoffs and budget cuts [2] - The economic downturn is not confined to specific regions but spans from the East Coast to the West Coast, with California and New York's economic stability being crucial for the national economy [2] Tariff Policies - Economic experts attribute the current economic downturn significantly to the tariff policies of the current U.S. administration, with the average tariff level being the highest in over fifty years [3] - Concerns about inflation and geopolitical issues have been raised by major banking executives, emphasizing the negative impact of import tariffs on consumers and the overall economy [3] Labor Market Trends - Economists are closely monitoring labor market trends, particularly the declining labor participation rate and rising unemployment among younger and older workers [5] - The demographic shift shows that the number of retirees is outpacing new graduates, leading to a potential hollowing out of the labor market [5] - Public sentiment reflects growing pessimism about the economy, with nearly half of respondents in a recent survey believing the economy is worsening [5]