高盛：私人投资有望提振白银中期前景 但短期需警惕波动性及下行风险加剧

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that silver prices are expected to rise further in the medium term, driven by private investment inflows, similar to the situation with gold prices due to market expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][2] Investment Demand - Investment demand is identified as the primary factor driving the increase in silver prices, with a noted 74% rise since the beginning of the year, reaching over $50 per ounce [1] - According to Goldman Sachs, every additional 1,000 metric tons of investment buying typically results in a price increase of approximately 1.6% for silver [1] Market Size Comparison - The total market size for gold, including ETF holdings and speculative buying, is approximately $450 billion, while the silver market is significantly smaller at around $50 billion [1] - Due to the smaller size of the silver market, it is expected to experience greater volatility and downside risk compared to gold if investors adjust their positions [1] Liquidity and Price Volatility - The liquidity of the silver market is noted to be about one-ninth that of gold, leading to potentially more pronounced reactions in silver prices to capital flows, thereby amplifying price volatility [1] Risks to Silver Prices - Two main risks that could trigger a short-term correction in silver prices are identified: demand-side risks and supply-side risks [2] - On the demand side, a temporary decline in ETF inflows could exert pressure on silver prices, as historically, ETF accumulation of silver tends to accelerate during Federal Reserve rate cut cycles [2] Supply Chain Issues - Supply-side risks include potential delays in the return of silver from the U.S. to Europe due to ongoing investigations into potential tariffs on critical minerals [2] - Unlike gold, silver lacks structural support from central bank purchases, which may limit its price growth in the long term [2] Industrial Demand - Goldman Sachs downplays the role of industrial demand for silver in long-term price growth, noting a slowdown in the global solar industry and a trend of manufacturers substituting silver with cheaper materials like copper [2]