董忠云：“十五五”政策预期逐渐增强，新主线或正在酝酿

Core Viewpoint - The global market is expected to enter a phase of dual monetary and fiscal policy easing, driving funds into resource and equity markets, with significant attention on gold prices which have surpassed $4000 per ounce [1][2][8]. Group 1: Global Economic Context - The U.S. government shutdown on October 1 has delayed the release of some economic data, with private sector employment data significantly below market expectations, reinforcing the Fed's rate cut outlook [6][7]. - The U.S. "Big and Beautiful" act has passed, involving large-scale tax cuts and increased government spending to stimulate the economy, while the EU has launched an €800 billion plan to enhance military capabilities and support Ukraine [7][8]. - Japan's new leadership under Kishi has a strong inclination towards expansionary fiscal policies, continuing the legacy of Abenomics [7]. Group 2: Market Trends and Performance - During the holiday period, global equity markets and resource commodities such as gold, silver, and copper have shown an upward trend, driven by easing monetary policies and geopolitical uncertainties [2][8]. - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index return to 3900 points for the first time in ten years, with significant gains in resource and technology sectors [12]. Group 3: Commodity Insights - International gold prices have risen due to a combination of rate cut expectations, geopolitical uncertainties, and central bank purchases, with prices reaching over $4000 per ounce [2][8]. - International copper prices are experiencing upward momentum due to supply-side disruptions and long-term demand driven by the computing revolution [8]. Group 4: Military and Defense Sector Outlook - The military industry is expected to see increased order expectations as the 14th Five-Year Plan concludes and the 15th begins, with a focus on unmanned and intelligent equipment driving recovery in orders and profit margins [3][12]. - Geopolitical events are likely to enhance the importance of military trade, providing opportunities for the domestic military industry [3][12]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The upcoming policy window in October is anticipated to drive the A-share market upward, with a focus on artificial intelligence and new consumer opportunities in resource sectors [13].