芦哲：如何看待本轮特朗普的关税威胁？

Core Viewpoint - Trump's renewed threat to impose tariffs on China has triggered risk-off trading in the market, leading to declines in U.S. stocks, copper, oil, bond yields, and the dollar index, while gold prices have fluctuated upwards. The impact of this tariff threat on the U.S. economy and markets is expected to be limited compared to the tariff shocks experienced in April, but it may increase inflationary pressures, complicating future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Attention should be paid to potential retaliatory measures and the escalation of trade conflicts into other critical areas such as rare earths and chips, as well as the progress of high-level meetings at APEC. In terms of trading strategy, risk assets like U.S. stocks may face accelerated adjustment risks due to the renewed tariff conflict, and if this leads to liquidity risks similar to those in April, gold and other safe-haven assets could be prioritized for investment. Once the new tariff conflict stabilizes, a gradual allocation to risk assets may be considered, with a focus on trading volumes in the CSI 300 ETF and U.S. stock index options [1][4]. Major Asset Classes - The renewed tariff threat from Trump has reignited risk-off trading, resulting in declines in U.S. stocks and bond yields, while gold prices have risen. At the beginning of the week, AMD and OpenAI's collaboration on AI chips boosted market sentiment, leading to new historical highs for U.S. stocks. However, following Trump's announcement of additional tariffs on China, U.S. stocks fell sharply. For the week of October 6 to October 10, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 8.70 basis points to 4.032%, and the 2-year yield fell by 7.43 basis points to 3.501%. The dollar index rose by 1.28% to 98.98, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices dropped by 2.43% and 2.53%, respectively. Spot gold prices increased by 3.38% to $4017 per ounce [2][4]. Overseas Economy - The September FOMC minutes indicate internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate paths. The preliminary consumer confidence index for October from the University of Michigan is 55, with expectations at 54 and a previous value of 55.1. Inflation expectations for the next year recorded by the New York Fed in September are 3.38%, up from 3.2%, while the Michigan index for October is 4.6%, with expectations at 4.7% and a previous value of 4.7%. The FOMC minutes reveal that concerns over recent employment growth slowing outweighed worries about persistent inflation, leading to the decision to initiate rate cuts in September. Most officials believe further monetary easing is appropriate for the remainder of the year, but there are still concerns about the risks of rising inflation, with some members suggesting that progress towards the 2% target has stalled, indicating ongoing divisions regarding future rate paths. As of October 7, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicts a 3.8% growth for Q3 2025, while the New York Fed's Nowcast model estimates a 2.34% growth for the same period [3][4]. Overseas Politics - Trump's renewed threat to impose tariffs on China has led to a resurgence of risk-off trading. On October 10, Trump announced that due to dissatisfaction with rare earth regulations, the U.S. will impose an additional 100% tariff on China starting November 1 and will implement export controls on key software. This escalation is influenced by external pressures easing, such as the recent ceasefire agreement between Israel and Palestine, allowing Trump to focus on U.S.-China trade relations. Additionally, the ongoing government shutdown in the U.S. necessitates a diversion of internal conflicts to external issues. The economic impact of the new tariffs is expected to be limited due to prior tariff threats and the seasonal nature of U.S.-China trade. However, the renewed tariff threat may reignite inflation risks in the U.S., particularly concerning imports from China. The market has become accustomed to Trump's unpredictable tariff policies, and the upcoming APEC meeting may provide an opportunity for high-level discussions between the two nations. Long-term, the experience from the 2018-19 trade conflicts suggests that tariff threats will persist and remain volatile, especially with the upcoming change in Federal Reserve leadership in May 2026, which may lead to a more dovish monetary policy [4].