邓正红能源软实力：原油市场焦点转向供应宽松局面 市场并未充分定价下行风险

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude futures hitting their lowest levels since spring, is primarily driven by escalating trade friction expectations and a significant reduction in geopolitical risks in the Middle East, particularly following the Gaza ceasefire agreement [1][2]. Group 1: Geopolitical and Trade Factors - The Gaza ceasefire has led to a collapse of the Middle Eastern risk premium, which previously supported oil prices, resulting in a shift from a "rule-dominated" to a "material-dominated" market [2]. - The escalation of trade tensions between the U.S. and China, including a 100% tariff on Chinese pharmaceuticals and increased port fees on U.S. vessels, has restructured global supply chain rules, negatively impacting oil demand expectations [2]. - The OPEC alliance's production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in October, along with record-high U.S. production of 13.53 million barrels per day, has contributed to a supply surplus that pressures oil prices [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Pricing Models - The market has not fully priced in the combined effects of geopolitical and trade rule changes, leading to a significant underestimation of the downward risks to oil prices [3]. - The traditional pricing models are failing to account for the non-linear relationships between geopolitical events and market dynamics, particularly in the context of the recent ceasefire and trade barriers [3][4]. - The divergence in the copper-oil ratio and shipping index indicates a delay in market recognition of these changes, suggesting a need for new cognitive pricing factors to be integrated into valuation models [4]. Group 3: Future Oil Price Trends - In the short term (1-3 months), the supply surplus driven by hard factors is expected to persist, with WTI potentially testing the critical support level of $60 per barrel [4]. - In the medium to long term, soft power factors, such as carbon tariffs and China's "AI+" strategy, are anticipated to reshape energy consumption structures and influence oil pricing [4].