华安期货：10月13日黄金白银预计偏强震荡

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and escalating tariff conflicts are increasing risk aversion and inflation expectations, providing support for gold prices [1][3]. Group 1: Key Information - China announced countermeasures against the U.S. 301 investigation into its shipbuilding industry, starting on October 14, imposing special port fees on U.S. vessels [1]. - On October 9, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced a comprehensive upgrade of rare earth export controls, adding five types of medium and heavy rare earth elements and implementing "long-arm jurisdiction" over technology, equipment, and overseas products [1]. - On October 10, Trump declared on social media that starting November 1, an additional 100% tariff would be imposed on all products from China, on top of existing tariffs [1]. - Major asset classes saw declines on Friday due to heightened trade risks and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, with U.S. and European stock markets falling collectively, U.S. oil main contracts dropping over 5%, and LME copper down approximately 4.5%. The U.S. dollar index fell by over 0.5%, while U.S. Treasury bonds and gold prices rose, with COMEX gold increasing by about 1.6%, marking an eight-week consecutive rise [1]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience a strong oscillation trend [3].