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Core Viewpoint - The international oil market experienced a significant downturn, with Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices hitting their lowest levels since spring, primarily driven by escalating trade friction expectations and a decrease in geopolitical risks in the Middle East [1] Group 1: Trade Tensions Impact - The escalation of trade friction has led to a sharp market reaction, breaking the previous "habitual immunity" to such risks, resulting in a rapid reassessment of demand expectations [2] - High tariffs are expected to increase costs in multinational manufacturing chains, prompting a recalibration of global economic growth assumptions and leading to reduced forward demand parameters from refiners and traders [2][3] Group 2: Geopolitical Risk Reduction - A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has significantly lowered geopolitical risk premiums that previously supported oil prices, leading traders to reduce long positions [4] - The cessation of drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure has further alleviated concerns regarding the security of Russian oil supplies [4] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - OPEC+ confirmed an increase in production, maintaining a trend of rising output, with OPEC's crude oil production reaching 27.948 million barrels per day in August, an increase of over 1.23 million barrels per day since April [5] - The U.S. crude oil production remains at a near five-year high, contributing to a global supply surplus, with September's global oil supply exceeding demand by 3.88 million barrels per day [6] - Rising inventories are evident, with U.S. commercial crude oil stocks increasing for two consecutive weeks, indicating a continued trend of oversupply in the fourth quarter [6]