谦恒智投：沪指再破3900点震荡回调，三大信号揭示牛市或已悄然启动！

Market Overview - The market has recently shown significant volatility, with the index briefly surpassing 3900 points before experiencing a pullback, which has caused panic among retail investors. However, this adjustment is viewed as an opportunity for those who missed the initial rally to re-enter the market [1][3]. Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index's breakout is not seen as a surprise but rather as a result of accumulated strength, with daily trading volumes consistently exceeding 2 trillion yuan, indicating a robust mid-term signal. The margin trading balance has stabilized around 2 trillion yuan for nearly two months, surpassing levels seen during the 2015 bull market [3]. - The index has broken through a nearly ten-year high of 3731 points and has maintained a steady consolidation above 3900 points, suggesting a long-term bullish trend [3]. Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut is viewed as the beginning of a broader easing cycle, which historically leads to significant global capital migration towards undervalued markets. This environment is expected to attract substantial foreign investment as the dollar weakens [3][4]. Brokerage Performance - The performance of listed brokerages has been outstanding, with 42 firms reporting a combined net profit exceeding 104 billion yuan in the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of 65.08%. Notably, some brokerages, like Huaxi Securities, reported a staggering 1195% increase in net profit [3]. - The high trading volume of 2 trillion yuan has significantly benefited brokerage firms' brokerage business, and the 18% rise in indices has led to substantial profits from proprietary trading [3]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on buying during pullbacks rather than chasing prices upwards. The brokerage sector is highlighted as a prime area for investment, with many stocks still having ample room for price adjustments before entering a buying phase [3][4]. - Specific leading brokerage stocks are recommended, such as Guosen Securities and Dongfang Securities, which are noted for their strong underwriting capabilities and asset management performance [4].