Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-13 06:05Group 1 - The first-generation iPhone Fold's hinge unit price is expected to drop to approximately $70–80 after mass production, significantly lower than the market expectation of $100–120 or higher, which may help Apple reduce costs and increase profits, potentially reflecting in pricing to expand market share [1] - Luxshare Precision (002475.SZ) may join as a new hinge supplier as early as 2027, indicating two possible trends: further downward potential for hinge unit prices and that hinges will become a new battleground for system assembly factories [1] - The joint venture between Hon Hai and New Nikko is responsible for the folding iPhone hinge assembly and production, with Hon Hai holding a slightly higher stake and leading future directions, achieving a higher order ratio (approximately 65%) compared to Amphenol (approximately 35%) [1] Group 2 - Amphenol's low order ratio is attributed to its lack of proactive response to Apple's expansion requirements, possibly considering absolute returns (profit growth in the hinge business) versus relative returns (higher returns from AI investments) [2] - The folding iPhone hinge remains an important trend for New Nikko, but its contribution needs to be reassessed, as market consensus may be overly optimistic by not considering factors such as significantly lower hinge unit prices, Hon Hai's higher profit share from the joint venture, and New Nikko's lack of significant benefits from upstream key component orders [2]