领峰环球金银评论：白宫裁员夜 金市避险时

Fundamental Analysis - The initial value of the U.S. one-year inflation expectation for October is 4.6%, slightly lower than the forecast and previous value of 4.7%, but still at a relatively high historical level, providing significant support for gold prices [1] - The slight decline in inflation expectations has not fundamentally alleviated market concerns about long-term price pressures, instead reinforcing gold's appeal as an inflation hedge amid overall uncertainty [1] - Increasing domestic economic pressures in the U.S., including a government plan to lay off over 4,000 employees primarily from the Democratic Party, may exacerbate social division and policy uncertainty, driving safe-haven funds towards the gold market [1] - The potential for significant adjustments in monetary policy is indicated by Trump's narrowing of the Federal Reserve chair candidate list to five, alongside the upcoming release of the September CPI report on October 24, which continues to fuel uncertainty regarding inflation and interest rate policies, providing solid potential support for gold prices [1] - Escalating tensions in South Asia, particularly between Pakistan and Afghanistan, and Trump's potential intervention highlight the seriousness of the conflict, while the possibility of providing "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine could significantly escalate the situation, further supporting gold prices due to increased safe-haven sentiment [1] Technical Analysis - The current gold price (XAUUSD) shows a strong bullish upward trend, with the moving average system in a bullish arrangement, indicating a potential for further upward movement after short-term corrections [4] - The CCI indicator is in the overbought zone and may suggest a short-term correction opportunity, but the overall market sentiment remains bullish [4] Trading Strategy - For gold, a buy position is recommended around 4015.6, with a stop loss at 4005.0 and a target range of 4090.0-4110.0 [5] - For silver (XAGUSD), the price is on a strong upward trajectory, with a buy position suggested around 50.10, a stop loss at 49.90, and a target range of 51.21-51.50 [9] News Events - Upcoming events include China's September trade balance and the World Bank and IMF's autumn meetings, along with a speech by Federal Reserve's Paulson [9]