Ge Long Hui·2025-10-13 06:37Core Viewpoint - Citigroup reports that Bank of China Hong Kong is expected to announce its Q3 2025 operating results in late October, forecasting an operating profit of HKD 11.2 billion, representing a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 18% and a year-on-year decline of 14% [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue is projected to decrease by 6% year-on-year to HKD 17.3 billion, primarily due to weakened trading income [1] - Net interest margin is expected to remain resilient, benefiting from improved funding costs and normalization of HIBOR [1] - Credit costs are anticipated to remain high at approximately 40 basis points, given the ongoing pressure in the commercial real estate market [1] Stock Performance and Ratings - Bank of China Hong Kong's stock price has recently retreated from its September highs, likely influenced by outflows of southbound funds and market concerns regarding net interest margin and trading income [1] - Citigroup's earnings forecasts for Bank of China Hong Kong for 2025 and 2026 are 1% and 3% higher than market consensus, respectively [1] - The rating is maintained at "Buy," with a slight adjustment of the target price from HKD 41 to HKD 40.9 [1]