四点半观市 | 机构:美联储降息有利于资金流入白银 但风险较黄金更高
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-13 08:49

Market Overview - The ChiNext 50 Index opened lower but closed up by 1.40%, with the rare earth permanent magnet sector showing strong performance, including stocks like China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth hitting the daily limit [1][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.19%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 0.93%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.11% [4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.35 trillion yuan [4] Bond Market - On October 13, government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 2-year main contract up by 0.02%, the 5-year up by 0.03%, the 10-year up by 0.10%, and the 30-year up by 0.37% [5] Commodity Market - Domestic commodity futures showed mixed results, with the main contract for silver rising sharply in the afternoon and reaching a new intraday high [6] - The ETF market had varied performances, with rare earth ETFs such as E Fund (159715) rising by 7.78%, while Hong Kong medical ETFs saw declines [6] Institutional Insights - Goldman Sachs reported that despite silver prices exceeding $50 per ounce, the medium-term outlook remains bullish, driven by inflows from private investments due to Federal Reserve rate cuts, although silver's volatility and downside risks are higher than gold [7] - CITIC Securities indicated that the supply of rare earths is becoming more rigid, and with the traditional peak season approaching, the supply-demand dynamics are improving, suggesting a stable increase in rare earth prices and a timely revaluation of the sector [7] - Barclays' global research chairman noted that gold prices have risen over 50% this year, reflecting increasing market distrust in the current fiscal and monetary order [7] - Zhonghang Securities' chief economist anticipates a significant policy window in October that could drive A-shares upward, despite potential external disturbances [7]