香港第一金：金价突破4070美元一带，现在上车还来得及吗？

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has shown a strong upward trend, with spot gold prices reaching historical highs due to escalating trade tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3][6]. Group 1: Price Movements - On Monday morning, spot gold prices surged to $4,059.30 per ounce, marking a historical peak [3]. - The upward trend continued, with prices breaking through the $4,070 per ounce mark in the afternoon [4]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also risen, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang seeing prices exceed 1,190 yuan per gram [5]. Group 2: Driving Forces - Trade tensions have intensified, with the U.S. announcing a 100% tariff on Chinese goods and implementing key software export controls, leading to increased global market risk aversion [6]. - There is a strong expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in both October and December, with a 96% probability for the October cut, putting further pressure on the dollar and supporting gold prices [6]. - Central bank gold purchases continue, with China's gold reserves rising for 11 consecutive months, reaching 74.06 million ounces by the end of September, and global central banks net purchasing 166 tons of gold in Q2, providing a "safety cushion" for gold prices [6]. Group 3: Market Strategy - The bullish trend remains intact, with any pullback seen as a buying opportunity [6]. - Key support levels to watch include $4,020 (short-term buying point) and $4,000 (psychological strong support), with a warning of deeper corrections if prices fall below $3,965 [7]. - Suggested trading strategy includes entering long positions in the $4,020-$4,030 range for aggressive traders, while conservative traders should wait for the $4,010-$4,000 range, with stop-loss set below $3,980 [8]. The short-term target is $4,070-$4,080, with potential to hold for $4,200 if broken [8].