宏观情绪拖累 沪铜高位回落【10月13日SHFE市场收盘评论】

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing price fluctuations due to escalating trade tensions, with recent price drops being partially offset by a recovery in market sentiment. The domestic copper inventory continues to accumulate amid high prices, and uncertainties in trade dynamics persist, leading to a high-level retreat in copper prices while concerns about supply from mining remain [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On Friday, copper prices fell by 2.06%, with a significant drop occurring during the night session due to trade friction [1]. - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees remain low at -40 USD/dry ton, indicating limited changes in the market, necessitating close monitoring of whether tight supply will continue to affect the smelting sector [1]. - Recent price movements have raised concerns that high copper prices may suppress downstream demand [1]. Group 2: Supply and Production Insights - Codelco of Chile has raised its estimate for copper production losses at the El Teniente project, although its overall production targets remain unchanged [1]. - The Freeport Indonesia mine accident is expected to result in a production cut of approximately 470,000 tons from Q4 this year to next year, which will significantly alter the global supply-demand balance, leading to a tight equilibrium in global copper supply and demand by 2026 [1]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve has initiated interest rate cuts, with market expectations indicating two more cuts within the year, contributing to a macroeconomic environment of dual easing in fiscal and monetary policy in the U.S. [1]. - Following the resolution of current market shocks, copper prices are expected to continue their upward trend, suggesting opportunities for strategic buying on dips [1].