9月出口大幅上行超预期，关税波动下中国外贸承压加大

Core Insights - China's foreign trade has shown resilience and structural optimization, achieving a total import and export value of 33.61 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of the year, a year-on-year increase of 4% [1] - The export growth rate reached 7.1%, while imports saw a slight decline of 0.2% [1] - The third quarter showed improvements in trade performance compared to the first eight months, with increases in overall trade, exports, and imports by 0.5%, 0.2%, and 1 percentage point respectively [1] Trade Performance - In September, imports and exports grew by 8%, with exports increasing by 8.4% and imports by 7.5%, marking a significant rise from August's figures [2] - The increase in September exports was attributed to a low base from the previous year and the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival, along with a rise in working days [2] - High demand for chips and automobiles contributed to export growth, with chip exports rising by 32.7% and automobile exports by 10.9% in September [2] Export Dynamics - Exports to the U.S. continued to decline significantly, with a year-on-year drop of 27.0% in September, although this was an improvement from the previous month's decline of 33.1% [3] - Non-U.S. exports showed a positive trend, with a year-on-year increase of 14.8% in September, driven by strong performance in the EU, ASEAN, and Belt and Road economies [3] - Exports to Belt and Road economies grew by 17.2%, with notable increases to Latin America and Africa [3] Growth Drivers - China's foreign trade has achieved continuous growth for eight consecutive quarters, with a 6% increase in the third quarter [4] - The export of high-tech products reached 3.75 trillion yuan, growing by 11.9% and contributing over 30% to overall export growth [5] - Cross-border e-commerce has also been a key growth engine, with imports and exports reaching approximately 2.06 trillion yuan, a growth of 6.4% [6] Future Outlook - The fourth quarter may face challenges, with potential declines in export growth due to high base effects from the previous year and ongoing trade tensions [8] - The logistics and shipping indices indicate a weak export environment, particularly for U.S. routes, while non-U.S. routes show limited growth potential [9] - Recent increases in shipping rates may provide some support, but overall trade policies remain uncertain, impacting global economic stability [10]