Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-13 09:32Core Viewpoint - Macquarie expects Alibaba-W (09988) to see continued acceleration in cloud business growth this fiscal year, with diversified monetization opportunities potentially leading to long-term margin expansion [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Macquarie has lowered its adjusted EBITA forecasts for Alibaba by 24% and 10% for the current and next fiscal years, reflecting increased spending in fast e-commerce and artificial intelligence training and inference [1] - The target price for Alibaba has been adjusted from HKD 229.1 to HKD 228.2 [1] Group 2: Market Position and Growth Potential - Despite potential larger losses from the rapid e-commerce summer activities, user traffic and transaction volume trends remain robust [1] - With a surge in AI adoption among Chinese enterprises, cloud demand is expected to boost Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth at a compound annual growth rate of 30% to 35% over the next few years [1] Group 3: Valuation Comparison - Macquarie believes that the market's current valuation assumption for Alibaba Cloud, contributing about 15% to 20% of the company's value, is overly conservative compared to Amazon Web Services (AWS), which is widely considered to account for over 50% of Amazon's equity value [1] - This indicates potential for narrowing the valuation gap with U.S. peers [1]