张尧浠:未来一年宽松交易为主流 金价4000关或又只是开始

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has seen a strong rebound, reaching historical highs, driven by geopolitical tensions, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and ongoing concerns about the U.S. government shutdown [1][3][6]. Price Movements - Gold prices opened the week at $3887.48 per ounce, hitting a low of $3884.01 before rebounding to a high of $4058.85, ultimately closing at $4012.63, marking a weekly increase of $128.31 or 3.3% [3][4]. - The price volatility included a significant drop to $3945 before recovering, indicating strong buying interest at lower levels [3][4]. Influencing Factors - Geopolitical factors, including the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and U.S. government shutdown concerns, have contributed to fluctuations in gold prices [3][7]. - The market is also reacting to U.S. tariffs on imports and the World Trade Organization's downward revision of global trade growth forecasts for 2026, which have added to the uncertainty [3][5]. Future Outlook - Short-term expectations suggest that even if gold prices do not rise, they will likely remain in a range-bound fluctuation due to ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties [5][6]. - Long-term projections indicate a potential for further increases in gold prices, with Goldman Sachs raising its 2026 gold price target to $4900 per ounce, supported by continued central bank purchases and a shift towards "de-dollarization" in emerging markets [5][6]. Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment remains bullish for gold, with a 52% increase in prices year-to-date, driven by factors such as interest rate cut expectations, geopolitical uncertainties, and central bank buying [6][9]. - The market is expected to maintain a positive outlook, with key support levels to watch for potential buying opportunities [6][9].