中美经贸上完全脱钩，我们还能继续繁荣吗？美元地位能动摇吗？

Group 1: Trade Dynamics - The total value of goods imported by the U.S. from China in the first six months of this year was approximately $13.2 billion, while exports to China were about $11.4 billion, showing a significant decline compared to the same period last year [2] - The trade volume between China and the U.S. for the first seven months was $337.2 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, indicating a reduction in trade scale due to escalating tensions [2] - China's exports to the U.S. are projected to drop from nearly $440 billion in 2024 to $177.4 billion in the first five months of this year, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 9.7% [2] Group 2: Economic Impact and Adaptation - Concerns are rising about the potential collapse of foreign trade enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, which heavily rely on exports to the U.S., particularly in electronics, machinery, and textiles [4] - In response to declining exports, China has shifted focus to emerging markets, with exports to the EU and Southeast Asia increasing significantly, demonstrating the effectiveness of diversifying export destinations [4] - The Chinese government is implementing stimulus policies to boost domestic demand, including infrastructure investments and promotional activities to enhance consumer spending [5] Group 3: Foreign Investment and Supply Chain Adjustments - A survey indicated that only 48% of U.S. companies plan to invest in China this year, down from 80% last year, suggesting a withdrawal of foreign capital [5] - Chinese companies are adapting by adjusting supply chains, sourcing materials from countries like Vietnam and India, or establishing local production facilities [5] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) anticipates that despite the challenges posed by U.S.-China tensions, China is expected to maintain stable growth, with total trade projected to exceed 6.5 trillion by 2025 [5] Group 4: Currency and Financial Implications - The U.S. dollar's status as a global reserve currency, currently at 62%, is being challenged by high tariffs and potential shifts in trade dynamics [7] - Research indicates that if average tariffs in the U.S. rise to 26%, the dollar's position as a key currency could weaken, leading to a reduction in U.S. Treasury bond purchases by China [7] - The trend of de-dollarization is gaining momentum, with countries exploring alternatives to the dollar for trade, as evidenced by recent contracts being negotiated in euros or renminbi [7][9]