民生证券：9月进出口：为何又超预期？

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected performance of September's export data reflects a combination of structural improvements in China's export landscape, including market diversification and industrial upgrades, rather than merely low base effects [1][8]. Export Performance - September's export value increased month-on-month, indicating a genuine recovery supported by China's diversified market strategies and industrial chain upgrades [1]. - The export structure has innovated under trade conflicts, with significant growth in high-tech product exports and expansion into emerging markets like Africa and Latin America, where exports to Africa surged by 56.4% [3][4]. - The trend of "anti-involution" has led to price recovery in exports, with many products showing a "stable volume and rising price" pattern [1][5]. Import Dynamics - September saw a notable rebound in import growth, driven primarily by rising commodity prices, although the recovery in domestic demand-related products remains weak [1][10]. - The increase in imports was largely concentrated in technology sectors, such as aircraft and integrated circuits, with the growth in raw materials like copper and iron ore being influenced more by price increases than by volume improvements [10]. Future Outlook - Despite ongoing trade tensions, exports are expected to maintain resilience due to diversified market strategies and industrial upgrades, supported by a marginal recovery in the global economy [8]. - The sustainability of the recent import growth is questioned, as it appears to be influenced by short-term price fluctuations rather than a robust recovery in domestic demand [10].