大摩Wilson警告：若贸易冲突不能在11月前解决，标普500将最多跌至5800点

Core Viewpoint - Michael Wilson from Morgan Stanley warns that if trade tensions are not resolved before November, the U.S. stock market faces a potential decline of up to 11% [1][4]. Group 1: Market Predictions - In a pessimistic scenario, the S&P 500 index could drop to a range of 5800 to 6027 points, representing a decline of 8% to 11% from last Friday's closing price [1]. - Wilson highlights that the market is under pressure for a correction due to high investor exposure and elevated valuation levels [1][4]. Group 2: Recent Market Performance - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant drop last Friday, with the S&P 500 index falling by 2.7% and the Nasdaq 100 index plummeting by 3.5%, ending a record bull market driven by AI investments [3]. - As of the report, U.S. stock index futures showed an upward trend, with Nasdaq 100 futures rising by 2%, Dow futures up by 1.05%, and S&P 500 futures increasing by 1.5% [3]. Group 3: Trade Tensions and Economic Outlook - Wilson notes that the recent escalation in trade friction was unexpected, but the fundamental outlook remains optimistic [4]. - He emphasizes that if trade uncertainties persist into early November, a larger correction than most expect could occur [4]. - Despite short-term warnings, Wilson maintains that once trade tensions ease, the economy is expected to recover by 2026, supported by a strong argument that can withstand short-term tactical trade escalations [4].