国际油价跌破60美元关口，供应过剩警报愈发刺耳

Core Viewpoint - The international oil prices are under significant pressure due to a combination of oversupply, geopolitical tensions, and economic uncertainties, with WTI crude futures falling below $60 per barrel and Brent crude futures below $64 per barrel [1][2][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global oil market is facing a supply surplus, exacerbated by OPEC+ continuing to increase production, with a reported increase of 137,000 barrels per day starting in November, which is lower than market expectations of 500,000 barrels per day [4][5]. - Major institutions, including the International Energy Agency (IEA), OPEC, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), have a pessimistic outlook for oil demand in the fourth quarter, indicating limited growth in demand [1][3][8]. Economic and Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. government's potential trade war, including threats of high tariffs on Chinese goods, is contributing to market uncertainty and rising risk aversion among investors [1][4]. - The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has led to a decrease in risk premiums, further pressuring oil prices [4]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current oversupply situation is likely to persist in the short to medium term, with oil prices facing downward pressure due to increased production and weak demand [7][8]. - The IEA predicts that global oil demand will peak by 2027, with a significant increase in oil production capacity expected, potentially leading to a prolonged period of low oil prices [8].