恒信证券|现货黄金再创历史新高：突破4080美元关口，避险与降息预期共振发力

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that spot gold prices surged to a new historical high of $4080 per ounce, reflecting heightened global risk aversion and expectations of an interest rate cut cycle in major economies [1][3][11] Group 2 - Gold prices broke records, with London spot gold reaching a peak of $4080 per ounce, marking a nearly three-month high in daily gains [3][4] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to a decline in the US dollar index and falling US Treasury yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to around 4.3% [3][5] Group 3 - Key drivers of the gold price increase include ongoing global geopolitical risks, rising inflation in some European countries, and a prolonged political deadlock in the US, which have all heightened market risk aversion [4][5] - The latest CPI data indicates a slowdown in US inflation, leading to market expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates or even enter a rate cut window [5][11] Group 4 - Central banks globally have increased their gold reserves, with net purchases expected to grow over 20% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, particularly from countries like China, India, Poland, and Turkey [6] Group 5 - From a funding perspective, ETF holdings have been rising since mid-September, with SPDR Gold ETF holdings surpassing 870 tons, indicating institutional investor optimism towards gold prices [7] - Speculative long positions in the futures market have significantly increased, with non-commercial net long positions rising over 35% [7] Group 6 - The impact of international gold price increases has led to the Shanghai Gold Exchange AU9999 spot gold price exceeding 590 yuan per gram, setting a new historical high in RMB terms [8] - In the A-share market, gold stocks such as Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, and Hunan Gold opened strongly, with a notable increase in gold ETF trading volume [9] Group 7 - Future gold price stability above $4000 per ounce will depend on the monetary policy pace of major economies and changes in inflation and geopolitical risks [11][12] - Most institutions expect gold prices to range between $3800 and $4100 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2025, with increased volatility anticipated in the short term [12]