四季度震荡开局，A股慢牛还在吗？|《财经》特别报道

Market Performance - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showed strong performance in the first three quarters of 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 16.27%, Shenzhen Component Index up 28.24%, and ChiNext Index up 45.37% [3] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 34.73% and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 45.73% during the same period [3][11] - The technology sector remains the main focus for future market trends, with significant gains in the ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 indices, which rose by 50.40% and 49.02% respectively in Q3 [3][10] Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment is high, with a rapid increase in risk appetite, although caution is advised regarding the sustainability of recent gains due to a lack of fundamental support [4][12] - Some investors have begun to lock in profits after significant price increases in their holdings [3][4] External Factors - New tariff impacts have caused fluctuations in global financial markets, with the A-share market experiencing a pullback after reaching a ten-year high of 3900 points [2][8] - The international gold price surged past $4000 per ounce, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [25][26] Future Outlook - Institutions generally expect a continued "slow bull" market, with a focus on technology and innovation as key drivers [3][12] - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to provide important guidance for the capital market, potentially enhancing market risk appetite [14][16] - Analysts predict that the A-share market will continue to attract foreign investment, particularly as global investors seek exposure to undervalued Chinese assets [21][28] Sector Analysis - The technology sector is expected to remain the main line of investment, with recommendations for investors to consider broad-based indices or sector ETFs due to the inherent uncertainties in individual tech stocks [5][15] - The performance of various sectors in Q3 showed that electronics and non-ferrous metals led the gains, with both sectors increasing by over 80% [10] Foreign Investment Trends - There is a notable increase in foreign investment interest in Chinese assets, with significant inflows recorded in September, particularly from passive funds [20][21] - Analysts from major financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, emphasize the attractiveness of Chinese markets due to lower valuations compared to global peers [21][28]