黄金周报｜市场避险情绪增强，黄金配置价值延续

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in gold prices is driven by macroeconomic uncertainties, including the U.S. government shutdown and rising geopolitical tensions, with potential for further upward movement in the short term [1][6]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - As of October 10, London spot gold closed at $4017.85 per ounce, marking a cumulative increase of $259.07 per ounce since September 26, representing a 6.89% rise [1]. - The highest gold price reached was $4059.31 per ounce, while the lowest was $3819.10 per ounce during the same period [1]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and macroeconomic uncertainties are eroding the dollar's status as a global reserve currency, enhancing market demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][6]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for October slightly decreased to 55, marking a five-month low, attributed to a slowing job market and persistent inflation [2]. - The ISM manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 49.1, indicating a slight contraction, with new orders declining [2]. - The ADP reported a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, significantly below market expectations, reflecting ongoing challenges in the U.S. labor market [3]. Group 3: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The FOMC meeting minutes revealed significant divisions among Federal Reserve officials regarding the interest rate cut path, with a majority supporting further cuts while some officials expressed caution [4]. - The Fed's decision to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25% reflects concerns over slowing job growth [4]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Political Uncertainties - The U.S. government shutdown has led to significant operational impacts, affecting approximately 2 million government employees and delaying key economic data releases [5]. - In Japan, the ruling coalition's unexpected breakup raises uncertainties regarding political stability and leadership transitions [5]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook for Gold - The long-term outlook for gold remains supported by factors such as the Fed's potential interest rate cuts, increasing macroeconomic uncertainties, and a global trend towards de-dollarization [6][8]. - China's central bank continues to increase its gold reserves, with a reported 7.406 million ounces as of the end of September, indicating ongoing demand for gold as a reserve asset [8].