顶压前行！中国外贸增速逐季加快，9月增长8%

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign trade has shown a steady and positive development trend in the face of a complex external environment, with a year-on-year growth of 4% in imports and exports for the first three quarters of the year [1] Trade Performance - In the first three quarters, China's total goods trade reached 33.61 trillion yuan, with exports at 19.95 trillion yuan (up 7.1%) and imports at 13.66 trillion yuan (down 0.2%) [1] - In September alone, the total trade volume was 4.04 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8% increase [1] Import Recovery - September marked a significant recovery in imports, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5%, the largest monthly increase this year [3] - Cumulative import decline has narrowed from 15.3% in January to just 0.2% by September, indicating a steady recovery in domestic demand [3][6] Export Structure and Growth - Exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 12.07 trillion yuan, growing by 9.6% and accounting for 60.5% of total exports [4] - High-tech product exports, including electronics and high-end equipment, saw significant growth rates of 8.1%, 22.4%, and 15.2% respectively [4] - Despite a 16.2% decline in exports to the U.S. over the first nine months, overall export resilience is evident [4] Market Diversification - Trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries reached 17.37 trillion yuan, up 6.2%, making up 51.7% of total trade [3] - Exports to ASEAN, Latin America, Africa, and Central Asia grew by 9.6%, 3.9%, 19.5%, and 16.7% respectively [3] Future Outlook - The outlook for exports remains optimistic, with expectations of continued growth driven by global economic integration and domestic policy support [5] - However, challenges remain, particularly regarding U.S. trade policies and the potential for increased export declines in the fourth quarter due to base effects from last year [5] Import Trends - The first three quarters saw a gradual increase in imports, with significant growth in raw materials and high-tech equipment driven by domestic industrial recovery [6][8] - The import of crude oil and metal ores increased by 4.9% and 10.1% respectively, reflecting rising domestic production and infrastructure investment [6][8] Policy and Market Access - China has expanded import access for 135 new agricultural products from 50 countries, and implemented zero tariffs on 100% of products from least developed countries with which it has diplomatic relations [9] - The upcoming China International Import Expo is expected to further enhance market access for global enterprises [10]