货币政策或将转向宽松？印度9月CPI同比增速创年内新低至1.54%

Core Insights - India's inflation rate has dropped below the central bank's target range, increasing market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to support the economy [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose by 1.54% year-on-year, slightly above economists' predictions of 1.50%, but significantly lower than the 2.07% increase in August [1] - This marks the slowest growth in eight years and the second instance this year where inflation has fallen below the RBI's target range of 2%-6% [1] Inflation Drivers - The slowdown in inflation is primarily driven by two factors: 1. Above-normal monsoon rains this year have boosted agricultural output, helping to lower food prices [1] 2. A consumption tax reform implemented by the Modi government on September 22 has reduced the prices of daily necessities [1] Economic Growth Context - Despite the weak inflation data providing more justification for a rate cut at the RBI's December meeting, analysts expect that U.S. tariffs on Indian goods will exert pressure on the country's annual economic growth [1] - India's economy expanded by 7.8% in the three months ending in June, marking the fastest growth in over a year [1] Tariff Impact - The increase in tariffs on Indian goods to 50% by the Trump administration, aimed at penalizing India for purchasing Russian oil, is the highest in Asia and diminishes India's price competitiveness against manufacturing rivals like Vietnam and Bangladesh [1]