IEXS盈十证券:黄金创历史新高，原油反弹受限，CPI数据成关键焦点

Market Overview - Global financial markets experienced significant volatility, with spot gold breaking through $4060 per ounce, reaching a historical high before retreating to around $4050 [1] - WTI crude oil rebounded to the $60 mark, while Brent crude oil rose above $63, although trade concerns continue to suppress long-term outlooks [1] - U.S. stock index futures collectively rose, with the S&P 500 futures gaining nearly 1%, reflecting market expectations for policy signals [1] - The cryptocurrency market saw increased volatility, with Bitcoin briefly surpassing $115,000, but over 180,000 traders faced liquidation, highlighting high leverage trading risks [1] Core Asset Analysis Gold - The escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions has directly driven gold prices higher, with increased capital flowing into safe-haven assets [2] - The logic behind gold's rise has shifted from a single geopolitical risk to a combination of factors, including heightened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and global central banks increasing gold holdings [2] - Technically, gold has stabilized above the $4000 level, with short-term support now at $3980; if trade tensions worsen, gold could challenge the $4100 mark [2] Oil - Despite a 5% rebound from last week's lows, WTI crude oil faces significant fundamental pressures [2] - OPEC's monthly report indicates a continued accumulation of global oil inventories, compounded by the impact of U.S. tariff policies on demand outlook [2] - The current oil price rebound is primarily driven by short-covering technical corrections; if OPEC+ fails to signal production cuts, oil prices may retest the critical support level of $55 [2] U.S. Stocks and Cryptocurrencies - U.S. stock index futures' rebound reflects market bets on a shift in Federal Reserve policy, with expectations for dovish signals from Fed Chair Powell [3] - The U.S. government shutdown is causing a lack of economic data, and with the earnings season approaching, market volatility is likely to remain high [3] - Bitcoin's surge past $115,000 was followed by profit-taking, resulting in liquidations totaling $630 million, indicating that market leverage remains high [3] Key Upcoming Events U.S. CPI Data - The U.S. Labor Department is set to release CPI data on October 24, which is crucial for Federal Reserve policy decisions; a year-on-year increase below 3.5% could strengthen expectations for a rate cut in December [4] Federal Reserve and IMF Policy Signals - Manufacturing PMI data from the New York and Philadelphia Fed will provide insights into U.S. economic resilience; Powell's speech at the IMF/World Bank annual meeting may offer key clues on monetary policy direction [5] Geopolitical and Trade Risks - Ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations, developments in the Middle East, and the U.S. government shutdown represent three major risk sources for the market [6] - Investors are advised to adopt a "core + satellite" strategy, using gold and government bonds as core hedging tools while allocating to defensive sectors like energy and defense [6] Strategy Recommendations - For gold, consider entering long positions on pullbacks to the $3980-$4000 range, with a stop loss at $3950 and a target of $4080 [7] - For oil, light short positions above $62 with a stop loss at $64 and a target of $58 are recommended [8] - In the forex market, trade the euro against the dollar in the 1.0850-1.0950 range and monitor the pound against the dollar at the 1.2500 support level [8] - In cryptocurrencies, follow long positions in Bitcoin after it surpasses $118,000, while strictly controlling positions to within 5% of total capital [8]