国际原油价格下行，国内油价或迎“两连跌”｜油市跌宕

Core Viewpoint - Domestic fuel prices have been reduced due to a decline in international oil prices, with gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 75 yuan and 70 yuan per ton respectively, effective from October 13, 2025 [2][3] Price Adjustment Details - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a reduction in gasoline and diesel prices based on the average price of crude oil over the previous ten working days, leading to a decrease of 0.06 yuan per liter for various gasoline grades and diesel [3][4] - This marks the 20th price adjustment in 2025, with a total of eight reductions, resulting in an overall downward trend in fuel prices for the year [3][4] Impact on Consumers - The price reduction will lower fuel costs for private car owners, with an estimated decrease of about 3 yuan for a full tank in a small car [2][4] - For logistics vehicles, the cost per 100 kilometers will decrease by approximately 2.4 yuan for heavy trucks, while private cars will see a reduction of about 0.4 yuan per 100 kilometers [4] International Oil Price Trends - International oil prices have shown a downward trend due to various factors, including increased production expectations from OPEC and concerns over supply surplus amid geopolitical tensions [5][6] - Recent announcements regarding a ceasefire in the Middle East have further reduced geopolitical risk premiums, contributing to the decline in oil prices [6] Future Price Expectations - Analysts predict a high likelihood of further reductions in domestic fuel prices in the upcoming adjustment cycle, with expectations of a decrease of around 300 yuan per ton based on negative price changes [8][9] - The next price adjustment window is anticipated to open on October 27, 2025, with a prevailing bearish sentiment regarding future oil price movements [9]