九月增产未改市场前景 欧佩克维持原油需求预测不变

Core Insights - OPEC maintains its outlook for the oil market despite a significant increase in daily oil production in September, with global oil demand expected to rise by 1.3 million barrels per day this year and 1.4 million barrels per day by 2026, consistent with previous forecasts [1][2] Group 1 - In September, OPEC+ daily oil production increased by 630,000 barrels, with the average daily production reaching approximately 43.05 million barrels [1][2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) believes the oil market is nearing a state of oversupply, as global oil prices have dropped nearly 15% this year [1] - OPEC+ has only agreed to restore 137,000 barrels per day of idle production capacity this month, indicating a slowdown in recovery compared to earlier this year [1] Group 2 - The OECD's oil demand is expected to increase by approximately 130,000 barrels per day this year, primarily driven by the Americas [2] - Non-OECD countries are projected to see an increase in oil demand of about 1.2 million barrels per day [2] - Transportation fuels are expected to be the main driver of oil demand growth this year, with jet fuel/kero demand increasing by 380,000 barrels per day and diesel demand by 300,000 barrels per day [2] Group 3 - Non-OPEC countries' oil production is expected to increase by about 800,000 barrels per day this year and by 600,000 barrels per day by 2026, consistent with previous assessments [2] - Brazil, Canada, the United States, and Argentina are identified as the main countries driving oil production growth [2] - OPEC+'s natural gas liquids and unconventional liquids production is expected to increase by 100,000 barrels per day this year, reaching an average daily production of 8.6 million barrels, with a similar increase projected for 2026 [2]