Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-13 13:09Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised Alibaba's (09988, BABA.US) capital expenditure forecast for the fiscal years 2026-2028 to 460 billion RMB, marking one of the most aggressive predictions on Wall Street, driven by the transformation of AI capital expenditure into growth expectations [1] Group 1: Capital Expenditure and Growth Expectations - The AI capital expenditure transformation framework is reshaping growth expectations for Alibaba, with analysts noting a two-year lag behind U.S. cloud service giants like Amazon AWS and Google Cloud [1] - Goldman Sachs estimates Alibaba's current data center capacity at 3-4 GW, with plans to expand to 20 GW by 2032, necessitating an annual addition of approximately 2 GW capacity [1] - The capital expenditure scenarios set by Goldman Sachs include a baseline of 460 billion RMB, an optimistic scenario of 550 billion RMB, and a pessimistic scenario of 380 billion RMB, with conversion ratios varying accordingly [2] Group 2: International Expansion and Revenue Growth - Alibaba Cloud has established 91 availability zones across 29 regions, with international business revenue expected to grow from single digits to about 25% by the fiscal year 2028, reflecting a high double-digit compound annual growth rate [2] - The international pricing of Alibaba Cloud's Qwen model is significantly higher than domestic levels, indicating a premium in overseas markets [2] - Alibaba Cloud is accelerating the construction of data centers in Brazil, France, and the Netherlands, while upgrading existing facilities in Mexico and Japan, adding 28 AI-specific suites [2] Group 3: Short-term Challenges and Market Competition - Despite the target price increase, Goldman Sachs warns of short-term challenges for Alibaba, particularly due to the impact of investments in the instant commerce business, which is expected to see a significant decline in EBITA for the September quarter [3] - The competition in the instant commerce sector is identified as a critical variable, with market share expected to stabilize among Meituan, Alibaba, and JD at a ratio of 5:4:1 [3] - Alibaba needs to demonstrate that its investments in instant commerce can yield synergies, particularly through cross-selling to enhance commercialization monetization rates (CMR) [3]