黄金牛市失控！金价狂飙不止，6000美元不是梦？

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached historic highs, with New York futures surpassing $4100 per ounce and spot gold exceeding $4080 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 55% [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions has led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with financial markets reacting negatively to tariff threats [4][5]. - The decline in trust towards the U.S. dollar, exacerbated by trade disputes, has contributed to the surge in gold prices, with the dollar index dropping nearly 9% this year [5][12]. - Central banks globally are increasing their gold purchases, with a total of 415 tons expected by mid-2025, and gold ETFs experiencing record net inflows [11][15]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Challenges - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma between slowing job growth, which necessitates interest rate cuts, and persistent inflation that limits the ability to lower rates [8][9]. - Market expectations suggest at least two more rate cuts this year, which favors non-yielding assets like gold [10][16]. Group 3: Future Price Predictions - Analysts predict significant increases in gold prices, with Bank of America forecasting $6000 per ounce by spring 2024, driven by anticipated changes in Federal Reserve policy and government stimulus [14]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 gold price forecast from $4300 to $4900 per ounce, citing strong ETF inflows and continued central bank purchases [14][17]. - JPMorgan projects gold prices to reach at least $4250 per ounce by mid-2024, supported by historical performance during previous Fed rate cut cycles [16].