Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a significant decline last Friday, with Hong Kong stock futures dropping by 5%, causing distress among investors [1] - However, the market sentiment shifted quickly, with US stock futures rebounding before the opening, leading to a recovery in the Hong Kong market later in the day [1] Historical Context - Since 2018, market fluctuations have been heavily influenced by external events, particularly those initiated by "Old Trump," affecting both US and Hong Kong markets [2] - The market has gone through multiple bull and bear cycles, with notable downturns following significant events, such as a 5.58% drop after the May Day holiday in 2019 [2][4] - The overall market trend from 2018 to the present has shown that while external events can cause short-term declines, the medium-term trend is more influenced by domestic policies and liquidity conditions [6] Current Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized by strong performance in sectors such as rare earths, semiconductors, and military industries, while overseas-related sectors like automotive parts and consumer electronics are underperforming [6] - The upcoming third-quarter earnings reports are expected to validate the positive outlook for certain sectors, particularly in military and technology [6] Future Outlook - The timing of the upcoming summit at the end of October is seen as critical, with potential for market recovery if tensions ease [7] - The market is currently showing a favorable stock-bond yield spread of 5.28%, indicating a relatively high attractiveness of equities compared to bonds [10] Trading Strategies - A grid trading strategy has been activated for 20 trading varieties, with specific ETFs in sectors like consumption, real estate, and new energy showing activity [8] - Quantitative signals indicate trends in broad indices such as the ChiNext 50 and the Sci-Tech 50, suggesting potential investment opportunities [9]
美国那边又搞事？复盘历次冲击后市场走势
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-13 13:58