关税冲击如何影响国内市场？

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. plans to impose an additional 100% tariff on all goods imported from China starting November 1, 2025, and implement export controls on "all critical software," leading to a decline in global risk assets and increased market volatility [1][2]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3900 points, and the bond market saw a general decline in interest rates, with 30-year and 10-year government bonds dropping by 5.01 and 2.54 basis points, respectively [1]. - On October 10, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices dropped by 3.56% and 2.71%, while international spot gold rose by 1.05%, surpassing $4000 per ounce [1]. Analyst Perspectives - Analysts believe that the recent escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions is primarily due to unreasonable sanctions on China's shipbuilding industry, with the market expected to adopt a cautious approach [1][2]. - Compared to the previous "reciprocal tariff" policy in April, the current market reaction is more measured, as investors have gained experience and are more prepared for potential outcomes [2][3]. A-Share Market Outlook - Despite short-term volatility, several brokerages maintain a positive long-term outlook for the A-share market, citing factors such as the resilience of Chinese enterprises, improving company quality, increasing dividends and buybacks, and sustained capital inflows [4]. - The A-share market is expected to remain focused on domestic factors, with analysts noting that the current market environment is stronger than in April [3][4]. Bond Market Impact - The impact of the current tariff escalation on the bond market is expected to be less severe than in April, with analysts predicting that the 10-year government bond yield will fluctuate between 1.7% and 1.75% [5][6]. - The market's learning effect from previous tariff announcements has led to a more rational response, with current sentiment favoring equities over bonds, limiting the extent of yield declines [6][7].