【长江策略戴清团队】“TACO 交易”再现，把握港股科技机遇

Core Insights - The current trade friction between the US and China is expected to have a lesser impact compared to April, with a smaller scope and lower degree of surprise, indicating a more resilient market [1] - The US plans to implement a new fee policy on Chinese shipping companies and restrict funding for Chinese biotech firms, while China will impose export controls on rare earth materials and additional port fees on US vessels [1] - Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods is seen as having a limited unexpected impact, with room for negotiation remaining [1] Group 1: Market Impact - Short-term pressure on major asset classes is anticipated due to tariff impacts, but long-term trends remain unchanged [1] - The market has developed a certain level of policy adaptability since the trade war began in 2018, which is expected to mitigate volatility compared to previous tariff announcements [1] - A potential stabilization and technical rebound in the market may occur as policy uncertainties are digested, with a possibility of returning to negotiations [1] Group 2: Hong Kong Market - The impact of tariff escalation on the Hong Kong stock market is expected to be limited, with potential for increased allocation opportunities during any pullbacks [2] - The current valuation of Hong Kong's major indices is slightly higher than in April, but the structural exposure to US exports is limited due to the composition of key sectors [2] - The semiconductor and software service industries in China may benefit from US export controls on critical software, aligning with the trend towards self-sufficiency [2] Group 3: Long-term Trends - Long-term impacts of tariffs are expected to diminish, allowing major assets to revert to their fundamental drivers, with a focus on technology sectors such as AI, cloud computing, and semiconductors driving US stock market growth [1] - The US dollar index and USD/CNY exchange rate may face pressure due to rising expectations of Fed rate cuts, while gold prices are likely to continue an upward trend amid central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions [1]