Xuan Gu Bao·2025-10-13 02:55Core Viewpoint - The rare earth sector has experienced a significant surge, driven by new export controls, rising prices of rare earth concentrates, and strong performance forecasts from companies in the industry [3][5]. Group 1: Export Controls - On October 9, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce announced new export controls on certain medium and heavy rare earths, related materials, equipment, and technologies, requiring export licenses for overseas organizations and individuals [3]. - The new regulations expand the scope of previous export controls, including additional categories of rare earths, equipment, raw materials, and technologies, covering the entire rare earth production chain [5]. Group 2: Price Adjustments - On October 10, North Rare Earth announced an adjustment of the rare earth concentrate trading price for Q4 2025 to 26,205 yuan/ton, a 37.13% increase compared to the previous period [3]. - Baogang Group also announced a similar price adjustment for Q4 2025, aligning with North Rare Earth's pricing [4]. Group 3: Company Performance - North Rare Earth expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.5 billion to 1.57 billion yuan for the first three quarters of this year, representing a year-on-year increase of 272.54% to 287.34% [3]. - The company's non-recurring net profit is projected to be between 1.33 billion and 1.39 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 399.90% to 422.46% [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the comprehensive upgrade of export controls may enhance the valuation of the rare earth sector, coupled with the release of company performance and continued price increases for rare earth concentrates [5]. - The demand side shows strong orders from downstream magnet manufacturers, with stable raw material demand, particularly in the fourth quarter, which is expected to support prices due to increased procurement for sectors like new energy vehicles and wind power equipment [6].