假期外盘金铜涨原油跌，宏观避险情绪可能升温

Macro Review - US economic data shows weakness, reinforcing expectations for interest rate cuts, with a 95% implied probability for a cut in October according to CME futures [1] - In September, the US ADP employment numbers decreased by 32,000, below the expected increase of 51,000, while the ISM manufacturing PMI was at 49.1, indicating contraction [1] - In China, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8%, above market expectations, while the non-manufacturing PMI fell to 50.0% [1] Commodities Overview - The return of risk-averse trading is anticipated due to potential escalation in US-China tariffs, impacting sensitive commodities like copper and oil, while benefiting gold [2] - Copper and aluminum have shown resilience despite high-level corrections, with copper maintaining a premium above cash costs [2][17] - Soybean prices are volatile due to uncertainties in US-China trade policies, with expectations for a significant breakthrough in upcoming negotiations [3][21] Price Movements - Significant price changes in commodities over the past two weeks include: - Natural gas: +12.6% - Tin: +6.8% - Copper: +5.4% - Gold: +5.3% - Brent crude oil: -6.1% [4] Energy Sector - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, with a notable increase in September production [10] - The US commercial crude oil inventory has increased, indicating potential oversupply pressure on prices [10] Black Metals - Steel inventory pressures are rising, with significant increases in stock levels during the holiday period [13] - Despite high production levels, the cost side remains strong, with iron ore supply and demand balanced [13] Non-Ferrous Metals - Supply constraints are becoming evident, particularly in copper, with production guidance being lowered for key mines [16][17] - The market is sensitive to supply disruptions, with expectations for copper prices to rise due to tightening supply [17] Agricultural Products - Soybean prices are influenced by trade policy uncertainties, with recent adjustments in production forecasts providing limited support [21] - Palm oil fundamentals remain strong, but prices are constrained by macroeconomic factors, particularly oil prices [23] Precious Metals - Global gold ETF holdings increased significantly in September, indicating a shift towards risk aversion amid economic uncertainties [24] - The demand for gold is driven by concerns over the US economy and geopolitical risks, with a potential shift in trading logic from interest rate expectations to safe-haven buying [24]