中国继续减持美债，但若是清空，最后结果会怎么样？

Core Viewpoint - China has significantly reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds since December, with a total reduction exceeding 100 billion dollars, bringing its holdings below the 1 trillion dollar mark, raising speculation about a potential complete divestment of U.S. debt [2] Group 1: Historical Context and Reasons for Holding U.S. Debt - The primary reason for China's substantial holdings of U.S. debt has been the long-term trade surplus with the U.S., necessitating the purchase of U.S. Treasury bonds to balance foreign exchange reserves [6][7] - The U.S. Treasury market offers higher safety and liquidity compared to European and Japanese bonds, with a daily trading volume of 500 billion dollars, making it an attractive investment for China [6] Group 2: Reasons for Recent Reduction in Holdings - The Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes, initiated in March, have raised concerns about potential economic slowdown in the U.S., prompting China to reduce its U.S. debt holdings to mitigate risks [8] - The U.S. national debt has ballooned to 30.3 trillion dollars, far exceeding its GDP, leading to worries about the risk of default and the depreciation of China's substantial U.S. debt holdings [8] Group 3: Potential Impact of Further Reductions - If China were to continue reducing or completely divest its nearly 1 trillion dollars in U.S. debt, it would likely cause short-term disruptions in the U.S. Treasury market, although these effects are expected to be temporary [8] - The Federal Reserve and large U.S. financial institutions have the capacity to absorb the bonds sold by China, and the U.S. economy's depth and breadth can accommodate the exit of any single large holder in the long run [8]