楼市持续下行，要做好“硬着陆”的准备？专家3个字回答

Core Insights - The surge in second-hand housing listings, exceeding 7.3 million, is not necessarily a sign of market collapse but reflects structural "selling anxiety" among investors [4] - The real estate market is experiencing a shift in sentiment, with a recovery in buyer confidence indicated by a 6.2 percentage point increase in the buyer confidence index in September [4][6] - The investment nature of housing is declining, with the proportion of urban households owning property dropping from 73.5% to 62.3% [4] Market Dynamics - In core cities like Beijing, second-hand home transactions increased by 35% week-on-week, indicating strong demand despite rising listings [4] - The "white list" projects have received 7 trillion yuan in loan support, facilitating the delivery of nearly 20 million homes, which is crucial for restoring market confidence [4][6] - The market is witnessing a shift towards "replacement rationality," with 48% of transactions in September being for improved housing, suggesting a return to the essence of living rather than speculation [5] Psychological Factors - The current real estate landscape resembles a "psychological check-up," where genuine demand from first-time buyers contrasts with the panic of speculative investors [6] - The debt-to-income ratio for urban households has reached 132%, indicating limited leverage capacity, which may affect future market dynamics [6] - The ongoing market adjustments are seen as a process of "de-bubbling" rather than a hard landing, with core areas stabilizing while lower-tier cities are experiencing a cleansing of excess [6]