Is Progressive Corp. Poised for an Earnings Beat This Q3?

Core Insights - The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is anticipated to show growth in both revenue and earnings for Q3 2025, with revenues expected to reach $22.3 billion, reflecting a 14.9% increase year-over-year [1][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimate stands at $5.00, indicating a year-over-year growth of 39.7% [2][6] Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q3 revenues is $22.3 billion, up 14.9% from the previous year [1][6] - The earnings estimate for Q3 is $5.00 per share, which has increased by two cents in the past week [2] - The consensus estimate for net premiums earned is $21.1 billion, representing a 15.3% increase from the year-ago figure [8] Earnings Surprise History - Progressive has beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 8.23% [4] - The earnings surprise history shows a reported EPS of $4.88 for the last quarter, exceeding the estimate by 10.16% [4] Factors Influencing Q3 Results - An increase in premiums, higher net investment income, and fees and service revenues are expected to positively impact revenues [7] - The personal auto business is projected to benefit from increased advertising, competitively priced products, and agency incentive programs [9] - The consensus estimate for net investment income is $914 million, up 23.5% year-over-year [10] Expense and Underwriting Insights - The consensus mark for the expense ratio is pegged at 29.8, indicating increased expenses due to higher loss and loss-adjustment expenses [11] - The combined ratio is expected to improve, with a consensus mark of 77, benefiting from prudent underwriting and the absence of catastrophic events [11]