对话朱民，房价走势透新向，为何会再次引发热议？

Core Viewpoint - The discussion on real estate in China highlights a significant shift in market dynamics, emphasizing the need for a realistic understanding of the current situation rather than an optimistic outlook on property prices [1][3][7]. Group 1: Real Estate Market Dynamics - The demand for real estate is shrinking, and a return to value is inevitable, as acknowledged by industry experts [3][5]. - China's population has experienced negative growth for three consecutive years, with a decrease of 1.39 million by the end of 2024, and over 21% of the population is now over 60 years old [3][5]. - The peak demand for housing is expected to decline as the last cohort of the baby boom generation born in 1997 approaches 30 years of age [5]. - The imbalance between housing supply and demand is evident, with an average housing area of 43 square meters per person, while the per capita GDP is less than half of that in Europe [5][6]. - The urbanization rate is nearing 70%, limiting future growth potential, and the previous model of demand driven by rural migration is no longer sustainable [5][6]. - The high leverage ratio of over 70% among residents indicates a significant depletion of purchasing power [5]. Group 2: Policy Changes and Market Outlook - There is a fundamental shift in policy direction, with the government focusing on developing the rental market, allocating 2 trillion yuan to encourage local governments to convert existing housing into rental properties [6][13]. - The sentiment around housing prices stabilizing is challenged, with experts suggesting that if individuals cling to unrealistic expectations of skyrocketing prices, they will struggle to maintain confidence [7][11]. - Despite some short-term increases in transaction volumes in cities like Shanghai, the overall price pressure remains unresolved, with a 7.38% year-on-year decline in second-hand residential prices across 100 cities as of September 2025 [11][13]. - The policy focus since 2025 has been on "stopping the decline and stabilizing" the market, aiming to prevent systemic risks rather than inflating property prices [13]. - The ultimate goal is to allow individuals to choose renting over being forced to buy, thereby reducing the burden of housing costs on household expenditures and freeing up other consumption capabilities [13].