现在150万的房子，10年后还能值多少钱？马光远二句话说透了

Core Insights - Since the launch of real estate market reforms in China in 1998, average housing prices have surged from 2,000 yuan per square meter to a peak of 11,000 yuan, marking a 5.5-fold increase, while living conditions have improved significantly with per capita housing area rising from 6-7 square meters to 39 square meters [1] - The continuous rise in real estate prices has outpaced residents' income levels, leading many families to struggle with homeownership, often resulting in substantial mortgage burdens [3] - An independent economist has stated that the era of real estate as the best investment in China has ended, suggesting that properties will increasingly return to their primary function as residences [5] Market Trends - As of September 2023, the trend of declining housing prices has become more pronounced, with 99 cities experiencing price drops, and over 90 cities seeing declines for four consecutive months [6] - Government policies have been implemented to cool the housing market, including the cancellation of purchase and sale restrictions, as well as reductions in mortgage rates to 4% and down payments to 20% [6] Future Outlook - The current value of a property priced at 1.5 million yuan may not only stagnate but could decline, as future property values will increasingly depend on local residents' income levels rather than speculation [7] - Several key factors contribute to the expectation of declining property values: - A significant imbalance between supply and demand, with 600 million existing homes capable of housing 3 billion people, and 96% of families already owning at least one property [9] - The prevalence of unfinished projects has eroded buyer confidence, as many real estate companies face financial difficulties due to a sluggish market [11] - The shrinking demand from first-time homebuyers due to urbanization reaching 64%, an aging population, declining marriage rates among younger generations, and a significant drop in newborn numbers [11]