Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the short-term risks for the US stock market are increasing due to multiple factors including escalating US-China trade conflicts, government shutdowns, and low economic visibility, leading to potential downward pressure on stock prices [1][3] - The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced weekly declines of 2.43%, 2.53%, and 2.73% respectively, reflecting the market's reaction to these risks [3] - The upcoming earnings season is expected to heighten the focus on earnings certainty, with a warning about the risks of high valuation corrections [1][3] Group 2 - The Indian stock market is experiencing upward momentum driven by tax reforms and foreign capital inflows, particularly with the introduction of GST 2.0, which lowers consumption and automotive-related tax rates [7][8] - The Indian market benefits from a robust growth outlook, supported by structural reforms and a favorable demographic dividend, positioning it for long-term growth [8] - The Japanese stock market is showing significant strength due to political changes and expectations of continued monetary easing, with the new Prime Minister's policies reinforcing market optimism [11][12] Group 3 - The Hong Kong market is facing volatility due to the escalation of US-China trade tensions, with a focus on the progress of negotiations and earnings certainty as key factors influencing market sentiment [20][21] - The gold market is experiencing new highs driven by the interplay of government shutdowns and trade conflicts, with gold prices rising significantly as a safe-haven asset [32][33] - The oil market is under pressure from geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts, leading to a notable decline in oil prices, with Brent crude and WTI experiencing drops of 3.78% and 4.34% respectively [36][38]
金金乐道·把握市场脉搏∣美股短期风险隐现，港股与黄金的避险价值凸显
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-13 23:41