汽车补贴开始摇号，要不要在年底赶紧买车？

Core Points - Shanghai has tightened the rules for the car trade-in subsidy program, shifting from a first-come-first-served model to a lottery system for eligibility [1][3] - The new lottery system will only allow for six opportunities to apply for subsidies until the end of the year, significantly reducing the chances for consumers to receive financial support [3][5] - This change may signal a broader trend of decreasing automotive subsidies across China, potentially leading to their complete elimination in the future [5][20] Summary by Sections Policy Changes - Starting from October 13 to December 31, consumers must purchase a vehicle and then enter a lottery using their purchase invoice, ID, and old car license plate, with the requirement that the new car must be registered in Shanghai [3][5] - The lottery will occur bi-weekly, limiting the total chances to six draws by year-end [3][5] Historical Context - The trade-in subsidy program began in April 2022, aimed at encouraging the replacement of older vehicles, particularly those meeting the National III emissions standard or older electric vehicles produced before April 30, 2018 [5][7] - Initial subsidies included 10,000 yuan for trading in old cars for new energy vehicles and 7,000 yuan for small displacement gasoline vehicles, which were later increased to 20,000 yuan and 15,000 yuan respectively [7][9] Regional Variations - Different regions have varying subsidy amounts; for instance, Zhejiang offered up to 18,000 yuan last year, which has since been reduced to 15,000 yuan [10][12] - The overall national subsidy pool for this year is set at 300 billion yuan, with reports indicating rapid depletion of funds leading to suspensions of trade-in subsidies in several cities [11][12] Market Impact - As of September 10, 2023, there have been 8.3 million applications for the trade-in program, reflecting its effectiveness in stimulating consumer demand [20] - The domestic passenger car sales from January to August 2023 reached 14.765 million units, marking a 9.7% year-on-year increase, indicating strong market activity driven by these subsidies [20]