公募观澜·把脉机遇 | 价值重估 景气再启 基金经理纵论新能源投资策略

Core Viewpoint - The renewable energy sector has experienced a significant rebound in 2023, with various indices showing substantial year-to-date increases, indicating improved fundamentals in the industry compared to the previous capital expenditure peak [1][15]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of October 13, the China Securities Renewable Energy Index has risen nearly 40% this year, while the National Securities New Energy Vehicle Battery Index, China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index, and China Securities Energy Storage Industry Index have increased by 63.1%, 21.1%, and 32% respectively [1][15]. - The rebound is attributed to the "anti-involution" policy, which has led many renewable energy companies to enhance competitiveness through cost reduction and efficiency improvements, resulting in a dual increase in profitability and valuation [16]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The lithium battery sector is experiencing robust demand due to its diverse applications, including electric vehicles, electric ships, and energy storage, supporting an annual compound growth rate of 20% to 30% [17]. - The supply-demand gap in the lithium battery industry is narrowing, with expectations of a supply shortage next year, potentially initiating a sustained price increase cycle [17]. Group 3: Subsector Insights - The photovoltaic sector is driven by policy, with investment opportunities being more sporadic and less predictable in terms of short-term profitability [18]. - The energy storage sector is expected to grow long-term due to increasing demand from AI applications, while the wind power sector is recovering with improved bidding data and demand release [18][19]. Group 4: Future Trends - Solid-state batteries are viewed as a critical future direction for the industry, with significant potential for growth and technological advancement [21]. - The market is currently in the early stages of solid-state battery development, with ongoing research and production plans from various battery companies [21][22]. Group 5: Emerging Applications - The rise of robotics and autonomous driving is expected to create new demand for lithium batteries, enhancing the growth potential for solid-state batteries due to their higher safety and energy density requirements [23]. - The commercialization of autonomous driving is positively impacting the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the domestic market, thereby enhancing the global competitiveness of domestic manufacturers [23].