橡胶系期价集体大跌 探底何时休？

Core Viewpoint - The rubber market is currently experiencing a weak fundamental outlook, exacerbated by renewed tensions in US-China trade relations, leading to significant declines in rubber futures prices [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of October 13, 2023, the main natural rubber futures contract (RU2601) fell below 15,000 yuan/ton, closing at 14,940 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.45%. The 20 rubber futures (NR2511) reported a price of 12,040 yuan/ton, down 2.51%, while butadiene rubber (BR2511) closed at 10,920 yuan/ton, down 2.67% [1]. - The decline in rubber prices is primarily driven by macroeconomic factors and fundamental market conditions, with the global financial market under pressure due to trade friction news [1][4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - In the natural rubber sector, the easing of rainfall in Southeast Asia post-holiday is expected to enhance new rubber supply, putting pressure on raw material prices and weakening cost support [2]. - Demand for tires has weakened, with a notable reduction in orders from EU markets due to anti-dumping policies and maintenance shutdowns during the National Day holiday, leading to slower inventory depletion [2]. - Concerns over domestic demand have intensified due to renewed US-China trade tensions, contributing to an expectation of oversupply in the global natural rubber balance sheet [2]. Group 3: Synthetic Rubber Insights - The tension in US-China trade relations has negatively impacted tire demand and caused a significant drop in international oil prices, with WTI crude falling below $60 per barrel, which has weakened cost support for butadiene rubber [3]. - The supply of butadiene and butadiene rubber is expected to expand passively due to the recovery of profits from naphtha cracking to ethylene, leading to further price pressure [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Seasonal factors are still relevant in the current weak market, with potential supply constraints due to El Niño affecting rubber tapping efficiency in key regions [3]. - Despite the current oversupply situation, there may be some support for rubber prices as domestic production in Yunnan and Hainan is expected to decline by late November [3]. - The market may see a pulse of demand driven by pre-holiday stocking and increased exports, particularly in the automotive sector, which could provide some support for rubber prices in the fourth quarter [3]. Group 5: Valuation and Market Sentiment - Current valuations for natural rubber are not high, suggesting limited further downside, but the short-term potential for a significant rebound remains low due to the supply-demand imbalance [4]. - Synthetic rubber, particularly butadiene, faces high supply pressure, and despite some substitution demand due to low price differentials, the overall supply pressure is expected to keep synthetic rubber in a weak position [4]. - The overarching theme is that the rubber sector is characterized by an oversupply situation, with macroeconomic events, especially US tariff policies, likely to continue influencing market trends [4].