贵金属涨疯了！

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged significantly due to geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S., with prices recently surpassing $4,130 per ounce, marking a historic high [2][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have increased nearly 60% this year, driven by strong demand from central banks and investor concerns over the global economic and political landscape [3]. - The market anticipates a 97% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, with a 100% probability for December, which typically benefits non-yielding assets like gold [3]. - Analysts from major banks, including Bank of America and Societe Generale, predict gold prices could reach $5,000 per ounce by 2026, with short-term corrections viewed as healthy for the long-term upward trend [4]. Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have also surged, breaking historical highs due to the rising demand for industrial applications, particularly in electric vehicles and solar panels [5]. - The silver market has been in a supply-demand imbalance since 2021, with increasing demand and limited capacity for rapid production expansion [5]. - Analysts predict silver prices could reach $65 per ounce by 2026, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and fiscal deficits [5]. Group 3: Supply Constraints and Market Conditions - The London silver market is experiencing significant tightness due to a shortage of available inventory, leading to a premium on spot prices compared to futures [6]. - The largest silver ETF, SLV, requires 15,415 tons of silver to back its issued shares, equivalent to seven months of global silver production [6]. - Current physical demand for silver far exceeds supply, with borrowing rates for silver skyrocketing above 100%, indicating a need for higher prices to restore balance [7][8].