钢价下行驱动不足

Group 1 - In July, the black metal sector saw significant increases due to favorable macroeconomic conditions and cost support, while in August, steel prices declined but iron ore and coking coal prices remained resilient [1] - The domestic manufacturing PMI for July, August, and September was 49.3%, 49.4%, and 49.8% respectively, indicating a weakening trend below the 50% mark [1] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December is expected to set the tone for next year's economic policies, with strong market expectations regarding fiscal deficit rates and real estate policy adjustments [1] Group 2 - The crude steel supply will enter a phase of environmental production limits and production willingness competition, with a cumulative crude steel output of 67.18 million tons from January to August, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8% [2] - Demand for construction steel is expected to significantly decline as outdoor construction slows down in northern regions due to falling temperatures, while southern regions will also see reduced demand intensity [2] - The introduction of a new law in South Korea aimed at enhancing the competitiveness of the steel industry and promoting green technology could significantly impact China's exports of medium and heavy plates and hot-rolled coils [2] Group 3 - Due to high tariff barriers set by the U.S., China's direct steel exports to the U.S. have become minimal, shifting focus to markets like Vietnam and South Korea, thus limiting the direct impact of new U.S. tariffs on steel prices [3] - The core market contradiction is expected to shift from "weak reality" to a competition between winter environmental production limits and year-end demand surges, leading to a wide fluctuation in domestic steel prices [3]