黄金今日行情走势要点分析（2025.10.14）

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have been influenced by trade tensions and geopolitical risks, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [2]. Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - Trade and geopolitical risks are rising, with President Trump reigniting trade disputes, prompting investors to seek gold as a safe haven [2]. - The market perceives the easing of tensions as temporary, with high tariffs still looming on October 29 [2]. - The Middle East remains unstable, with recent peace agreements lacking concrete steps, further increasing gold's appeal as a safe asset [2]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates, with a 97% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October and a 100% probability in December, benefiting gold prices [2]. - The interplay between interest rates and inflation could influence the Fed's decisions, potentially strengthening gold's safe-haven demand [2]. - Key speeches from Federal Reserve officials this week may impact market expectations regarding interest rate cuts [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold demonstrated a strong upward trend on Monday, breaking through last week's high and closing with a bullish candlestick [3]. - The moving average system indicates a clear bullish trend, with the price remaining above the 10-day moving average [3]. - Support is focused around the 5-day moving average near the 4050 level, which is crucial for maintaining the upward trend [3]. - In the four-hour timeframe, the price successfully broke above last week's high, confirming the upward trend [6]. - Key support is at the 4060 level, which has been validated as a significant "top-bottom conversion support" [6]. - Resistance levels to watch include the 4140-4145 range, with potential for further upward movement if these levels are surpassed [6].