金价突破“心理极限”，全球黄金协会：涨势尚无尽头可言！

Core Insights - The recent surge in gold prices has sparked comparisons to the late 1970s, leading investors to assess whether the price surpassing $4,000 per ounce indicates a continuation of the trend or a potential reversal [2] - The World Gold Council (WGC) emphasizes that the psychological and technical significance of price milestones should not overshadow the fundamental drivers of gold's performance, such as the duration and core factors of the current bull market [2][4] - The primary driver of the recent gold price increase is a surge in investment demand, particularly from Western investors, amid geopolitical tensions, a weakening dollar, and concerns over stock market corrections [2][4] Price Movement and Historical Context - Gold prices rose from $3,500 to $4,000 in just 36 days, significantly faster than the historical average of 1,036 days for similar price increases [2][3] - The current bull market's duration and magnitude remain below historical averages, with the latest $500 increase corresponding to a relative gain of only 14% [2][4] ETF and Market Dynamics - From late August to the present, gold ETFs have seen an influx of $21 billion, totaling $67 billion for the year, indicating heightened investor interest [4] - Despite strong inflows, current gold ETF holdings are still 2% below the peak of 3,929 tons in November 2020, with only 128 tons added during the recent $500 price increase [4][5] - The current gold ETF bull market began in May 2024 and has lasted 74 weeks, with holdings increasing by 788 tons, which is only 30% to 40% of the historical average during previous bull markets [6] Tactical and Strategic Considerations - Short-term challenges for gold prices include potential profit-taking, strategic rebalancing by investors, and technical indicators suggesting overbought conditions [8][9] - Long-term support for gold prices is expected to come from a diversified investor base, ongoing macroeconomic changes, and policy uncertainties [8][9][11] - Factors such as a weakening dollar, persistent geopolitical tensions, and high inflation may continue to bolster gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [9][10] Conclusion - The recent milestone of gold surpassing $4,000 per ounce marks a significant point, with future price movements likely influenced by both tactical and fundamental factors [8][11] - The WGC suggests that while comparisons to 1979 are tempting, they may be misleading, and the strategic advantages of gold as an investment remain robust [11]